Model‐informed health system reorganization during emergencies

The COVID‐19 pandemic presented the world to a novel class of problems highlighting distinctive features that rendered standard academic research and participatory processes less effective in properly informing public health interventions in a timely way. The urgency and rapidity of the emergency required tight integration of novel and high‐quality simulation modeling with public health policy implementation. By introducing flexibility and agility into standard participatory processes, we aligned the modeling effort with the imposed reality of the emergency to rapidly develop a regional system dynamics (SD) model integrating diverse streams of data that could reliably inform both health system restructuring and public health policy. Using Lombardy data, our SD model was able to generate early projections for the diffusion of the pandemic in neighbor Ticino. Later, it projected the timing and size of peak patient demand. Our work also supported the need for reorganization of the healthcare system and volume flexibility strategies increasing hospital capacity (e.g., intensive care unit [ICU] and ward beds, medical and nursing staff, and oxygen supply) in Ticino. Counterfactual analyses quantify the impact of the decisions supported by our interventions. Our research contributes to our understanding of volume flexibility strategies used by healthcare organizations during emergencies, highlighting the critical role played by available response time in the deployment of strategies that either prioritize critical services or leverage available resources. It also contributes to the literature on participatory systems modeling by describing a flexible and agile participatory process that was successfully deployed in a rapidly evolving high‐stakes emergency.

Analysis of Antimicrobials in Muscle and Drinking Water in Terms of Reducing the Need of Antimicrobial Use by Increasing the Health and Welfare of Pig and Broiler.

Antimicrobial residues may pose harmful effects on the health of consumers. At the same time, an adequate quality of drinking water for animals is one of the important element to ensure animal welfare and food without antibacterials. The presented study is aimed at estimating the residue levels of antibacterial compounds, such as penicillins, cephalosporin, macrolides, tetracyclines, quinolones, sulphonamides, aminoglycosides, diaminopirymidines, pleuromutilines and lincosamides in meat and on-farm drinking water samples using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS), as a part of a surveillance system on pig and broiler farms within the project Healthy Livestock. A total of 870 samples of muscle from pig and broiler, as well as 229 water samples were analysed for antibiotic residues. Samples were collected from farms in EU countries in two steps, before and after implementation of a tailor-made health plan. In muscle samples, the detected concentrations of doxycycline in the post-intervention step (15.9-70.8 µg/kg) were lower than concentrations in the pre-intervention step (20.6-100 µg/kg). In water samples, doxycycline in an average concentration of 119 µg/L in the pre- and 23.1 µg/L in the post-intervention step, as well as enrofloxacin at concentrations of 170 µg/L in the pre- and 1.72 µg/L in the post-intervention step were quantified. Amoxicillin was only present before intervention. The obtained results confirm the effectiveness of the intervention actions. The concentrations of antibiotics in muscles and water were lower after implementation of a health plan on the farms.

Maturation of SARS-CoV-2 Spike-specific memory B cells drives resilience to viral escape.

Memory B cells (MBCs) generate rapid antibody responses upon secondary encounter with a pathogen. Here, we investigated the kinetics, avidity, and cross-reactivity of serum antibodies and MBCs in 155 SARS-CoV-2 infected and vaccinated individuals over a 16-month time frame. SARS-CoV-2-specific MBCs and serum antibodies reached steady-state titers with comparable kinetics in infected and vaccinated individuals. Whereas MBCs of infected individuals targeted both prefusion and postfusion Spike (S), most vaccine-elicited MBCs were specific for prefusion S, consistent with the use of prefusion-stabilized S in mRNA vaccines. Furthermore, a large fraction of MBCs recognizing postfusion S cross-reacted with human betacoronaviruses. The avidity of MBC-derived and serum antibodies increased over time resulting in enhanced resilience to viral escape by SARS-CoV-2 variants, including Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 sublineages, albeit only partially for BA.4 and BA.5 sublineages. Overall, the maturation of high-affinity and broadly reactive MBCs provides the basis for effective recall responses to future SARS-CoV-2 variants.

The reproducibility of COVID-19 data analysis: paradoxes, pitfalls, and future challenges.

In the midst of the COVID-19 experience, we learned an important scientific lesson: knowledge acquisition and information quality in medicine depends more on "data quality" rather than "data quantity." The large number of COVID-19 reports, published in a very short time, demonstrated that the most advanced statistical and computational tools cannot properly overcome the poor quality of acquired data. The main evidence for this observation comes from the poor reproducibility of results. Indeed, understanding the data generation process is fundamental when investigating scientific questions such as prevalence, immunity, transmissibility, and susceptibility. Most of COVID-19 studies are case reports based on "non probability" sampling and do not adhere to the general principles of controlled experimental designs. Such collected data suffers from many limitations when used to derive clinical conclusions. These include confounding factors, measurement errors and bias selection effects. Each of these elements represents a source of uncertainty, which is often ignored or assumed to provide an unbiased random contribution. Inference retrieved from large data in medicine is also affected by data protection policies that, while protecting patients' privacy, are likely to reduce consistently usefulness of big data in achieving fundamental goals such as effective and efficient data-integration. This limits the degree of generalizability of scientific studies and leads to paradoxical and conflicting conclusions. We provide such examples from assessing the role of risks factors. In conclusion, new paradigms and new designs schemes are needed in order to reach inferential conclusions that are meaningful and informative when dealing with data collected during emergencies like COVID-19.

Maturation of SARS-CoV-2 Spike-specific memory B cells drives resilience to viral escape

Memory B cells (MBCs) generate rapid antibody responses upon secondary encounter with a pathogen. Here, we investigated the kinetics, avidity and cross-reactivity of serum antibodies and MBCs in 155 SARS-CoV-2 infected and vaccinated individuals over a 16-month timeframe. SARS-CoV-2-specific MBCs and serum antibodies reached steady-state titers with comparable kinetics in infected and vaccinated individuals. Whereas MBCs of infected individuals targeted both pre- and postfusion Spike (S), most vaccine-elicited MBCs were specific for prefusion S, consistent with the use of prefusion-stabilized S in mRNA vaccines. Furthermore, a large fraction of MBCs recognizing postfusion S cross-reacted with human betacoronaviruses. The avidity of MBC-derived and serum antibodies increased over time resulting in enhanced resilience to viral escape by SARS-CoV-2 variants, including Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 sub-lineages, albeit only partially for BA.4 and BA.5 sublineages. Overall, the maturation of high-affinity and broadly-reactive MBCs provides the basis for effective recall responses to future SARS-CoV-2 variants. Graphical

Imprinted antibody responses against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron sublineages.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron sublineages carry distinct spike mutations resulting in escape from antibodies induced by previous infection or vaccination. We show that hybrid immunity or vaccine boosters elicit plasma-neutralizing antibodies against Omicron BA.1, BA.2, BA.2.12.1, and BA.4/5, and that breakthrough infections, but not vaccination alone, induce neutralizing antibodies in the nasal mucosa. Consistent with immunological imprinting, most antibodies derived from memory B cells or plasma cells of Omicron breakthrough cases cross-react with the Wuhan-Hu-1, BA.1, BA.2, and BA.4/5 receptor-binding domains, whereas Omicron primary infections elicit B cells of narrow specificity up to 6 months after infection. Although most clinical antibodies have reduced neutralization of Omicron, we identified an ultrapotent pan-variant-neutralizing antibody that is a strong candidate for clinical development.

ACE2-binding exposes the SARS-CoV-2 fusion peptide to broadly neutralizing coronavirus antibodies.

The coronavirus spike glycoprotein attaches to host receptors and mediates viral fusion. Using a broad screening approach, we isolated seven monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) that bind to all human-infecting coronavirus spike proteins from severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) immune donors. These mAbs recognize the fusion peptide and acquire affinity and breadth through somatic mutations. Despite targeting a conserved motif, only some mAbs show broad neutralizing activity in vitro against alpha- and betacoronaviruses, including animal coronaviruses WIV-1 and PDF-2180. Two selected mAbs also neutralize Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 authentic viruses and reduce viral burden and pathology in vivo. Structural and functional analyses showed that the fusion peptide-specific mAbs bound with different modalities to a cryptic epitope hidden in prefusion stabilized spike, which became exposed upon binding of angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) or ACE2-mimicking mAbs.

Poor neutralization and rapid decay of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 variants in vaccinated dialysis patients.

Patients on dialysis are at risk of severe course of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Understanding the neutralizing activity and coverage of SARS-CoV-2 variants of vaccine-elicited antibodies is required to guide prophylactic and therapeutic COVID-19 interventions in this frail population. By analyzing plasma samples from 130 hemodialysis and 13 peritoneal dialysis patients after two doses of BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 vaccines, we found that 35% of the patients had low-level or undetectable IgG antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 Spike (S). Neutralizing antibodies against the vaccine-matched SARS-CoV-2 and Delta variant were low or undetectable in 49% and 77% of patients, respectively, and were further reduced against other emerging variants. The fraction of non-responding patients was higher in SARS-CoV-2-naïve hemodialysis patients immunized with BNT162b2 (66%) than those immunized with mRNA-1273 (23%). The reduced neutralizing activity correlated with low antibody avidity. Patients followed up to 7 months after vaccination showed a rapid decay of the antibody response with an average 21- and 10-fold reduction of neutralizing antibodies to vaccine-matched SARS-CoV-2 and Delta variant, which increased the fraction of non-responders to 84% and 90%, respectively. These data indicate that dialysis patients should be prioritized for additional vaccination boosts. Nevertheless, their antibody response to SARS-CoV-2 must be continuously monitored to adopt the best prophylactic and therapeutic strategy.

A Circadian Hygiene Education Initiative Covering the Pre-pandemic and Pandemic Period Resulted in Earlier Get-Up Times in Italian University Students: An Ecological Study.

The aims of the present study were to obtain sleep quality and sleep timing information in a group of university students and to evaluate the effects of a circadian hygiene education initiative. All students of the University of Padova (approximately 64,000) were contacted by e-mail (major campaigns in October 2019 and October 2020) and directed to an ad hoc website for collection of demographics and sleep quality/timing information. Participants (n = 5,740) received one of two sets of circadian hygiene advice ("A regular life" or "Bright days and dark nights"). Every month, they were then asked how easy it had been to comply and provided with the advice again. At any even month from joining, they completed the sleep quality/timing questionnaires again. Information on academic performance was obtained post hoc, together with representative samples of lecture (n = 5,972) and examination (n = 1,800) timings, plus lecture attendances (n = 25,302). Fifty-two percent of students had poor sleep quality, and 82% showed signs of social jetlag. Those who joined in October 2020, after several months of lockdown and distance learning, had better sleep quality, less social jetlag, and later sleep habits. Over approximately a year, the "Bright days and dark nights" advice resulted in significantly earlier get-up times compared with the "A regular life" advice. Similarly, it also resulted in a trend toward earlier midsleep (i.e., the midpoint, expressed as clock time, between sleep onset and sleep offset) and toward a decrease in the latency between wake-up and get-up time, with no impact on sleep duration. Significant changes in most sleep quality and sleep timing variables (i.e., fewer night awakenings, less social jetlag, and delayed sleep timing during lock-down) were observed in both advice groups over approximately a year, mostly in association with pandemic-related events characterizing 2020. Early chronotype students had better academic performances compared with their later chronotype counterparts. In a multivariate model, sleep quality, chronotype and study subject (science and technology, health and medical, or social and humanities) were independent predictors of academic performance. Taken together, these results underlie the importance of designing circadian-friendly university timetables.

Broadly neutralizing antibodies overcome SARS-CoV-2 Omicron antigenic shift.

The recently emerged SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant encodes 37 amino acid substitutions in the spike protein, 15 of which are in the receptor-binding domain (RBD), thereby raising concerns about the effectiveness of available vaccines and antibody-based therapeutics. Here we show that the Omicron RBD binds to human ACE2 with enhanced affinity, relative to the Wuhan-Hu-1 RBD, and binds to mouse ACE2. Marked reductions in neutralizing activity were observed against Omicron compared to the ancestral pseudovirus in plasma from convalescent individuals and from individuals who had been vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2, but this loss was less pronounced after a third dose of vaccine. Most monoclonal antibodies that are directed against the receptor-binding motif lost in vitro neutralizing activity against Omicron, with only 3 out of 29 monoclonal antibodies retaining unaltered potency, including the ACE2-mimicking S2K146 antibody1. Furthermore, a fraction of broadly neutralizing sarbecovirus monoclonal antibodies neutralized Omicron through recognition of antigenic sites outside the receptor-binding motif, including sotrovimab2, S2X2593 and S2H974. The magnitude of Omicron-mediated immune evasion marks a major antigenic shift in SARS-CoV-2. Broadly neutralizing monoclonal antibodies that recognize RBD epitopes that are conserved among SARS-CoV-2 variants and other sarbecoviruses may prove key to controlling the ongoing pandemic and future zoonotic spillovers.

Broad betacoronavirus neutralization by a stem helix-specific human antibody.

The spillovers of betacoronaviruses in humans and the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants highlight the need for broad coronavirus countermeasures. We describe five monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) cross-reacting with the stem helix of multiple betacoronavirus spike glycoproteins isolated from COVID-19 convalescent individuals. Using structural and functional studies, we show that the mAb with the greatest breadth (S2P6) neutralizes pseudotyped viruses from three different subgenera through the inhibition of membrane fusion, and we delineate the molecular basis for its cross-reactivity. S2P6 reduces viral burden in hamsters challenged with SARS-CoV-2 through viral neutralization and Fc-mediated effector functions. Stem helix antibodies are rare, oftentimes of narrow specificity, and can acquire neutralization breadth through somatic mutations. These data provide a framework for structure-guided design of pan-betacoronavirus vaccines eliciting broad protection.

Repercussions of COVID-19-related national lockdown on Emergency Surgery Department: a longitudinal cohort monocentric study.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 lockdown restrictions in conjunction with the pervasive hospital fear endured by the vast majority of the population played a fundamental role in discouraging access to emergency departments (EDs). We aimed at investigating whether and how the COVID-19 outbreak limited the access to ED and affected urgent surgical activities during and immediately after the 2-month pandemic-related national lockdown. METHODS: Data regarding patients who accessed to the surgical ED were retrospectively collected. Analyzed time-periods included: "pre-COVID-19 era," "COVID-19 era" considered as the period of full national lockdown and "post-COVID-19 era" after easing of lockdown measures. Consecutive emergency surgical procedures and ED admissions before, during and after COVID-19-lockdown were retrieved and analyzed. RESULTS: There was a significant decrease in overall ED admissions and in all-specialty surgical consultations (P<0.01) throughout the outbreak. Once national lockdown was eased, we recorded a subsequent rebound 5-fold rise of emergency surgical procedures compared to COVID-19 group (P=0.011). Time-to-surgery was significantly greater in "COVID-19 era" and "post-COVID-19 era" compared to "pre-COVID-19" group (22.56±4.78, 75.99±15.89 and 16.73±1.76 hours, respectively) (P<0.01). A raised incidence of postoperative complications emerged in the "COVID-19 era" group (37.5%) compared to pre- and post-COVID groups (9.1% and 12.5%, respectively; P<0.001). Mortality rate in the "COVID-19 era" was 31.3% and 7.5% in "post-COVID-19" group (<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the major reduction of emergency surgical procedures and overall, ED admissions caused by COVID-19 pandemic. The raised rate of postoperative complications and mortality might be likely due to the superior severity of surgical conditions observed in the "COVID-19 era" subjects together with a probable deferred pursuit of medical attention.

Clonal analysis of immunodominance and cross-reactivity of the CD4 T cell response to SARS-CoV-2.

The identification of CD4+ T cell epitopes is instrumental for the design of subunit vaccines for broad protection against coronaviruses. Here, we demonstrate in COVID-19-recovered individuals a robust CD4+ T cell response to naturally processed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spike (S) protein and nucleoprotein (N), including effector, helper, and memory T cells. By characterizing 2943 S-reactive T cell clones from 34 individuals, we found that the receptor-binding domain (RBD) is highly immunogenic and that 33% of RBD-reactive clones and 94% of individuals recognized a conserved immunodominant S346-S365 region comprising nested human leukocyte antigen DR (HLA-DR)- and HLA-DP-restricted epitopes. Using pre- and post-COVID-19 samples and S proteins from endemic coronaviruses, we identified cross-reactive T cells targeting multiple S protein sites. The immunodominant and cross-reactive epitopes identified can inform vaccination strategies to counteract emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants.

A data-driven approach to identify risk profiles and protective drugs in COVID-19.

As the COVID-19 pandemic is spreading around the world, increasing evidence highlights the role of cardiometabolic risk factors in determining the susceptibility to the disease. The fragmented data collected during the initial emergency limited the possibility of investigating the effect of highly correlated covariates and of modeling the interplay between risk factors and medication. The present study is based on comprehensive monitoring of 576 COVID-19 patients. Different statistical approaches were applied to gain a comprehensive insight in terms of both the identification of risk factors and the analysis of dependency structure among clinical and demographic characteristics. The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus enters host cells by binding to the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), but whether or not renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitors (RAASi) would be beneficial to COVID-19 cases remains controversial. The survival tree approach was applied to define a multilayer risk stratification and better profile patient survival with respect to drug regimens, showing a significant protective effect of RAASi with a reduced risk of in-hospital death. Bayesian networks were estimated, to uncover complex interrelationships and confounding effects. The results confirmed the role of RAASi in reducing the risk of death in COVID-19 patients. De novo treatment with RAASi in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 should be prospectively investigated in a randomized controlled trial to ascertain the extent of risk reduction for in-hospital death in COVID-19.

Circulating SARS-CoV-2 spike N439K variants maintain fitness while evading antibody-mediated immunity.

SARS-CoV-2 can mutate and evade immunity, with consequences for efficacy of emerging vaccines and antibody therapeutics. Here, we demonstrate that the immunodominant SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) receptor binding motif (RBM) is a highly variable region of S and provide epidemiological, clinical, and molecular characterization of a prevalent, sentinel RBM mutation, N439K. We demonstrate N439K S protein has enhanced binding affinity to the hACE2 receptor, and N439K viruses have similar in vitro replication fitness and cause infections with similar clinical outcomes as compared to wild type. We show the N439K mutation confers resistance against several neutralizing monoclonal antibodies, including one authorized for emergency use by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and reduces the activity of some polyclonal sera from persons recovered from infection. Immune evasion mutations that maintain virulence and fitness such as N439K can emerge within SARS-CoV-2 S, highlighting the need for ongoing molecular surveillance to guide development and usage of vaccines and therapeutics.

Risk assessment and seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in healthcare workers of COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 hospitals in Southern Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: Hospital healthcare workers (HCW), in particular those involved in the clinical care of COVID-19 cases, are presumably exposed to a higher risk of acquiring the disease than the general population. METHODS: Between April 16 and 30, 2020 we conducted a prospective, SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence study in HCWs in Southern Switzerland. Participants were hospital personnel with varying COVID-19 exposure risk depending on job function and working site. They provided personal information (including age, sex, occupation, and medical history) and self-reported COVID-19 symptoms. Odds ratio (OR) of seropositivity to IgG antibodies was estimated by univariate and multivariate logistic regressions. FINDINGS: Among 4726 participants, IgG antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 were detected in 9.6% of the HCWs. Seropositivity was higher among HCWs working on COVID-19 wards (14.1% (11.9-16.5)) compared to other hospital areas at medium (10.7% (7.6-14.6)) or low risk exposure (7.3% (6.4-8.3)). OR for high vs. medium wards risk exposure was 1.42 (0.91-2.22), P = 0.119, and 1.98 (1.55-2.53), P<0.001 for high vs. low wards risk exposure. The same was for true for doctors and nurses (10.1% (9.0-11.3)) compared to other employees at medium (7.1% (4.8-10.0)) or low risk exposure (6.6% (5.0-8.4)). OR for high vs. medium profession risk exposure was 1.37 (0.89-2.11), P = 0.149, and 1.75 (1.28-2.40), P = 0.001 for high vs. low profession risk exposure. Moreover, seropositivity was higher among HCWs who had household exposure to COVID-19 cases compared to those without (18.7% (15.3-22.5) vs. 7.7% (6.9-8.6), OR 2.80 (2.14-3.67), P<0.001). INTERPRETATION: SARS-CoV-2 antibodies are detectable in up to 10% of HCWs from acute care hospitals in a region with high incidence of COVID-19 in the weeks preceding the study. HCWs with exposure to COVID-19 patients have only a slightly higher absolute risk of seropositivity compared to those without, suggesting that the use of PPE and other measures aiming at reducing nosocomial viral transmission are effective. Household contact with known COVID-19 cases represents the highest risk of seropositivity. FUNDING: Henry Krenter Foundation, Ente Ospedaliero Cantonale and Vir Biotechnology.

Mapping Neutralizing and Immunodominant Sites on the SARS-CoV-2 Spike Receptor-Binding Domain by Structure-Guided High-Resolution Serology.

Analysis of the specificity and kinetics of neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) elicited by SARS-CoV-2 infection is crucial for understanding immune protection and identifying targets for vaccine design. In a cohort of 647 SARS-CoV-2-infected subjects, we found that both the magnitude of Ab responses to SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) and nucleoprotein and nAb titers correlate with clinical scores. The receptor-binding domain (RBD) is immunodominant and the target of 90% of the neutralizing activity present in SARS-CoV-2 immune sera. Whereas overall RBD-specific serum IgG titers waned with a half-life of 49 days, nAb titers and avidity increased over time for some individuals, consistent with affinity maturation. We structurally defined an RBD antigenic map and serologically quantified serum Abs specific for distinct RBD epitopes leading to the identification of two major receptor-binding motif antigenic sites. Our results explain the immunodominance of the receptor-binding motif and will guide the design of COVID-19 vaccines and therapeutics.